Research suggests that overconfident managers often harm firm value by taking excessive risks due to overly optimistic future outlooks or inflated self-assessments (Griffin and Tversky, 1992; Malmendier and Tate, 2008). Overconfident CEOs are reported to overestimate the expected returns from uncertain ventures. However, Hirshleifer, Low, and Teoh (2012) present evidence that overconfident CEOs, who tend to be more enthusiastic about challenging and risky projects, invest more in innovation and often succeed, introducing the "overconfident manager puzzle" where such managers enhance rather than damage firm value. This study aims to test these conflicting findings in the context of Korean firms. It explores the hypothesis that optimistic managers—unlike overconfidence, which is traditionally viewed as harming firm value through overinvestment—might instead be innovators who enhance firm value. The study utilizes a novel methodology involving machine learning to measure managerial overconfidence. Unlike U.S. studies that often use stock options as indicators, this research leverages text analysis of managerial opinions disclosed in business reports, using the BERT machine learning model to quantify optimism. The ambiguity in measuring overconfidence in previous studies is another consideration. Psychologically, overconfidence is seen as an irrational bias, but empirical variables might capture a manager’s rational optimism about the future. If a manager’s outlook is rational, overconfidence could lead to positive outcomes, unlike the negative connotations typically associated with it. Many studies interchange overconfidence with optimism, where the former implies irrational excessive confidence and the latter signifies a positive future outlook. Generally, overconfident CEOs are believed to make poor decisions by overestimating future performance and underestimating risks, leading to value-destroying mergers and acquisitions (Malmendier and Tate, 2005, 2008). Such CEOs are often reported to overpay in M&A deals, necessitating strict control through compensation and governance structures. Overconfident managers also tend to invest more than their less confident counterparts, potentially harming firm value through overinvestment (Moez and Amina, 2008; Chen, Ho, and Ho, 2014). Conversely, some researchers highlight the positive roles of overconfidence. It can enhance decision-making execution, encourage necessary risk-taking for shareholder benefit, and stimulate entrepreneurial activities (Russo and Schoemaker, 1992; Goel and Thaker, 2008; Bernardo and Welch, 2001). Hirshleifer et al. (2012) found that overconfidence negatively impacts acquisitions but positively influences innovation. They suggest that overconfident managers in firms with innovation opportunities can achieve significant success, unlike those in firms without such opportunities who might make detrimental acquisition decisions. The study’s empirical analysis yielded several key findings. First, contrary to expectations, there was a negative relationship between CEO Optimism and risk, as measured by stock return volatility, suggesting that optimistic CEOs do not prefer riskier projects unlike overconfident CEOs. However, this relationship turned positive when controlling for capital availability, indicating that optimistic CEOs choose risky projects when capital is accessible. This implies that the measure of optimism might reflect rational optimism rather than irrational bias. Second, optimistic CEOs were found to increase R&D investments and engage more in innovation activities, such as filing patents. Third, they tend to hold more cash to seize future investment opportunities. Last, optimistic CEOs were confirmed to enhance firm value, aligning with Hirshleifer et al. (2012), suggesting that they are rational optimists driving innovation rather than irrationally overconfident leaders. In conclusion, the study reaffirms that optimistic managers can be seen as rational optimists whose confidence drives innovation and firm value enhancement, challenging the traditional view of overconfidence as purely detrimental.

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Previous studies have examined how credit ratings are associated with corporate financial decisions by focusing on their linear relationship (e.g., Baghai, Servaes, and Tamayo, 2014; Khieu and Pyles, 2016; Jung and Kim, 2018; Kim and Kim, 2019; Jeon and Lee, 2020). However, this relationship is not likely to be linear because market recognition on credit ratings and financial regulations are affected by alphabetic ratings (Kisgen, 2006). For example, firms near credit rating upgrade (a rating designated with "+") or downgrade (a rating designated with "-") have stronger incentives to obtain a credit rating jump or avoid a credit rating downgrade than these not near credit rating change issue, resulting in different corporate financial decisions. In this paper, we thus examine how the likelihood of credit rating changes affects corporate financial policies. We hypothesize that firms near credit rating changes are more likely to have conservative financial policies than these not near rating changes. Our hypothesisis based on two reasoning. First, firms closer to credit rating changes are more likely to pursue conservative financial decisions to reduce the cost of raising capital. Because credit ratings are a significant factor to determine the cost of raising capital, firms near a rating change issue are more concerned about possible changes in their cost of capital. Hence, firms with a plus (minus) rating will be more conservative regarding their financial decisions to obtain the higher rating (maintain the current rating) than these without a plus (minus) rating. Second, firms near a change in rating are likely to choose more conservative policies to meet the investment criteria of financial institutions. Financial institutions face several regulations with respect to their investments. Under the regulations, a firm’s credit rating is one of important criteria to decide the investments of financial institutions. Therefore, firms with a minus (plus) rating are motivated to set greater conservative policiesto maintain current investments (obtain new investments) from financial institutions than these not near a rating change issue. To test our conjecture, we use data on credit ratings to Korean firms over the 2011-2022 period. Following Kisgen (2006), We define firms with a plus (+) or minus (-) rating as these closer to rating changes (upgrade or downgrade). Using the rating outlook data, we also define firms with a "Positive" or "Negative" ("Stable") outlook as these near (not near) rating changes. Moreover, we measure corporate financial policies using a firm’s leverage, dividend, and cash holdings. Our final sample includes 2,736 firm-year observations between 2011 and 2022. We find that firms with a plus or minus rating tend to use less debt, pay less dividend, and hold more cash than these without a plus or minus rating. We further find that firms with a "Positive" or "Negative"outlook are likely to borrow less, pay less dividend, and reserve more cash than these with a "Stable" outlook. The results suggest that firms more prone to rating changes are more likely to have conservative financial policies to reduce the cost of raising capital and meet the investment criteria of financial institutions. In addition, our findings remain consistent after mitigating endogeneity issues subject to reverse causality, omitted variable bias, and measurement errors. Specifically, our results persist when we re-estimate the likelihood of credit rating changes using the rating outlook data and perform propensity score matching analysis and system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimations. Unlike the previous literature that hasexamined on a linear relationship between credit ratings and corporate decisions, this paper contributes to the corporate finance literature by suggesting a non-linear relationship between the likelihood of credit rating changes and corporate financial policies. Furthermore, while existing studies on credit rating changes have focused on capital structure (Kisgen, 2006; Kim, Seol, and Kim, 2007; Kim and Yoon, 2013), earnings management (Kim, 2016), cost behavior (Kim and Chung, 2017), corporate governance (Hong and Kim, 2019), and voluntary disclosure incentive (Kim, 2022), this paper adds to the literature by exploring various corporate financial policies and enriching the understanding of corporate decisions with respect to credit rating concerns.

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This study is a study to empirically confirm the insolvency risk caused by the induction of large-sized securities companies after the introduction of the comprehensive financial investment business (extra-large securities companies) policy in the Korean capital market. Since the introduction of the polcy, there have been concerns that the expansion of the business scope of securities firms may expose them to various risks, such as high-risk investments due to leverage expansion, concentration of real estate PF assets deepening, and credit risk and interest rate risk due to trading of derivatives-linked securities. In this study, the impact of equity capital on insolvency risk was analyzed using a panel regression model for 39 domestic securities firms from the first quarter of 2009 to the fourth quarter of 2016, before and after the introduction of the policy in October 2013. Among previous studies, studies that presented positive results regarding the enlargement of financial companies focused on individual financial companies, while studies that presented negative results focused on the perspective of the financial system as a whole. The introduction of comprehensive financial investment businesses, which was the focus of this study, is a topic from the financial system perspective, so it is appropriate to conservatively examine the impact of policy introduction. Therefore, this study established the hypothesis that “the enlargement of securities companies following the introduction of the comprehensive financial investment business policy increases their insolvency risk.” The dependent variable of the analysis model is the natural logarithm of the default risk variables (EDF and Z-Score), and the independent variable is the amount of equity capital (natural logarithm) of individual securities companies. Other control variables include asset size (total assets (natural logarithm)), capital adequacy (NCR), profitability (ROE), asset soundness (NPL), and macroeconomic variables (GDP growth rate, housing price fluctuation rate, KOSPI growth rate). As a result, first, although securities companies are becoming larger in line with the purpose of introducing the comprehensive financial investment business policy, it was confirmed that their insolvency risk increased after the introduction of the policy. In other words, in the case of large securities companies, EDF increased and Z-Score decreased. Second, especially for super-large securities companies with equity capital of KRW 3 trillion or more, their insolvency risk increased significantly in proportion to the size of equity capital after the introduction of the policy, which can be attributed to the risk exposure due to the expansion of the scope of business. These results suggests the following: First, it needs to be intended to promote stability in the capital market by actively supervising the risk-seeking business of large securities companies following deregulation, and establishing risk-monitoring system in terms of macroprudentiality that can immediately intervene in their insolvency. Second, It can urge the awakening of all securities industry. In particular, in the process of reorganizing the sales and profit structures of securities industry due to the policy, it can be suggested that policies such as specialization strategies for small and medium-sized securities companies in order to minimize the negative impact of the relative weakening of their competitiveness. Finally, companies seeking to access the capital market can be expected to actively monitor the securities firms they deal with. This perspective is especially useful for small and medium-sized businesses. The insolvency risk of financial companies is inversely proportional to the financial inclusion of small and medium-sized businesses. Above all, without undermining financial stability, coordination and cooperation of market participants such as companies, investors, intermediaries, and advisors, as well as regulatory policies of policy authorities are of utmost importance.

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This study investigates the anti-manipulation effects of average futures within a generalized framework. Our primary contributions include revising and extending the anti-manipulation features proposed by Yoo (2015) and providing an in-depth comparison of existing anti-manipulation settlement mechanisms and average futures in terms of their efficacy as manipulation deterrents. We find that the anti-manipulation effects are weaker than in Yoo (2015) if a manipulator engages in an average futures contract with a smaller contract multiplier or more reference dates, manipulates it not only on its expiration date but also on other reference dates, or if the price momentum of the underlying asset due to the manipulation is stronger. Additionally, average futures effectively deter manipulation and help preserve market stability, unlike traditional anti-manipulation mechanisms that often distort prices. This comprehensive comparison underscores the advantages of using average futures to maintain market equilibrium and mitigate manipulation.

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This study investigates the impact of defined benefit pension plan underfunding on the investment activities of firms listed on the South Korean stock market from 2013 to 2022. Using a sample of firms with accessible pension data, the research analyzes the relationship between pension underfunding levels and two primary types of investment activities: capital expenditures and research and development expenditures. The findings reveal that firms with higher levels of pension underfunding tend to increase their research and development spending, while there is no significant effect on capital expenditures. This indicates that firms prefer to allocate the funds saved from pension underfunding towards research and development rather than capital expenditures. This preference can be explained by the expectation that research and development investments, which are primarily funded through internal cash flows, yield higher future returns compared to investments in tangible assets or capital expenditures. Supporting studies highlight that increased research and development spending is associated with significant improvements in abnormal returns and long-term operating performance, whereas high capital expenditures can lead to negative abnormal returns. The study further explores the distinction between financially constrained and unconstrained firms in terms of their investment behavior. The positive relationship between pension underfunding and research and development expenditure is particularly pronounced in firms without financial constraints. Financially unconstrained firms are more likely to prioritize long-term growth and innovation over short-term financial stability, leading them to invest more heavily in research and development. In contrast, financially constrained firms may face limitations in their ability to invest due to higher external financing costs and limited internal cash flow, thereby prioritizing immediate financial survival over long-term investments. To investigate potential managerial opportunism in firms with underfunded pensions, the study hypothesizes that managers may leverage the flexibility and discretion they have over pension funding to divert resources to other investment activities. The findings indicate that firms with high levels of managerial ownership exhibit a stronger positive relationship between pension underfunding and research and development expenditure. This suggests that managers with significant ownership stakes have more leeway to influence investment decisions and are more likely to direct savings from pension underfunding towards research and development. The potential for managerial opportunism is further supported by the observation that such managers prioritize investments with higher expected returns, like research and development, which can enhance their own compensation and the firm's long-term prospects. The robustness of the results is tested using different measures of pension underfunding, including the ratio of pension deficits to market value and the ratio of pension deficits to cash and cash equivalents. These additional analyses consistently show that pension underfunding significantly impacts research and development expenditure but not capital expenditures, reinforcing the primary findings of the study. The implications of this study are multifaceted. First, it underscores the strategic decisions firms make regarding the allocation of resources saved from pension underfunding. The preference for research and development over capital expenditures is driven by the higher expected returns and the strategic importance of innovation and long-term growth. This finding highlights the role of internal financing in supporting research and development activities, particularly in firms with significant managerial ownership and those without financial constraints. Second, the study reveals the need for more stringent regulations to ensure efficient utilization of pension funds. The potential for managerial opportunism, where managers may use the flexibility in pension funding to their advantage, poses risks to the firm's financial health and the security of employee pensions. Policymakers should consider implementing measures that limit the discretion managers have over pension funding and enhance transparency in how these funds are allocated. Third, the results suggest that firms with underfunded pensions might be engaging in riskier investment strategies, such as increased research and development spending, to achieve higher returns. While this can lead to significant long-term benefits, it also introduces greater volatility and potential risks. Therefore, investors should be aware of the implications of a firm's pension funding status on its investment strategy and overall risk profile. In summary, this study provides valuable insights into the relationship between defined benefit pension plan underfunding and corporate investment behavior. It highlights the strategic allocation of saved resources towards research and development, the influence of financial constraints, and the potential for managerial opportunism. The findings call for improved regulatory oversight to protect the interests of employees and ensure the sustainable growth of firms. The study contributes to the broader understanding of how pension funding decisions impact corporate strategy and financial performance, offering a foundation for future research in this area.

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This study comprehensively analyzes the patterns of risk and return relationship in the Korean stock market and applies them to portfolio management strategies. Total eight number of risk measures - long and short term total volatility, systematic volatility, idiosyncratic volatility, and market beta - are employed to analyze the risk-return relationship in the KOSPI market from July 1990 to December 2021. Furthermore, based on the results of the analysis, we conduct various empirical experiment to improve the profitability of the low-risk related ETFs traded in the Korean stock market. The key findings are as follows: First, we observe that the low-risk anomalies are significant over the entire period only for the short-term volatility measures. Small-growth groups show greater low-risk premiums for long-short portfolios, whereas small-value groups exhibit higher low-risk premiums for long-only portfolios. Second, the low-risk anomalies are not robust across the risk measures and measurement periods. Third, as a result of the causality analysis between the risk premiums from the different risk measures, we find that the low-risk anomalies in the Korean stock market are primarily driven by idiosyncratic volatility anomaly. Lastly, we find that the definition of underlying indices of the low-risk related ETFs currently traded in the Korean stock market does not adequately reflect the empirical patterns of the risk-return relationship. If we modify them in accordance with our empirical findings, the profitability of the low-risk indices significantly improve with robustness. This study has contributions in that it deepen the understanding of the low-risk anomalies in the Korean stock market and proposes practically useful applications of them to enhance portfolio management strategies.

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Motivated by the mixed findings of the existing literature, we investigate the performance of the volatility targeting strategy in four Asian equity markets based on a block-bootstrap simulation. We found no clear evidence of outperformance of the strategy against a 50/50 constant-mix portfolio, except in the Chinese market where volatility and tail risk are highest. The lack in performance has been attributed to an inability to detect the negative relationship between volatility and returns by all of the volatility forecasting models we consider. This may affect the capacity to reduce downside risk and tail risk but consistently causes a substantial drag on performance. Owing to forecasting errors, the strategy appears to perform considerably better and easier to implement in practice when using a model with low sensitivity to volatility changes along with a rebalancing buffer.

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Virtual assets have experienced dramatic ups and downs over the past few years, since an anonymous developer named Satoshi Nakamoto introduced Bitcoin in 2008. Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer electronic cash system based on blockchain technology, enabling payments and transactions verification without a centralized custodian. Despite controversies surrounding Bitcoin's currency status (IMF, 2016; Yermack, 2015; Hendrickson et al., 2015), there is a consensus that virtual assets function as alternative investment assets providing portfolio diversification, inflation hedging, and exposure to new technology effects. (Glaser et al., 2014; Briere et al., 2015; Bouri et al., 2017; Choi, 2022) Consequently, the market for virtual assets has evolved significantly, with over 26,346 types of virtual assets issued by the end of June 2023, and their total market capitalization estimated to exceed $11.7billion (coinmarketcap). Despite recognition of the legitimacy of virtual assets by major countries such as the US, EU, Japan, and Korea, attempts to bring them under policy consideration have led to differing regulatory systems and relative scales of supply and demand across countries, resulting in price deviations. Notably, the daily average price ratio between the USD and KRW Bitcoin market exceeded 15% from December 2017 to February 2018, a phnomenon referred to as the 'Kimchi premium' in both popular press and academic research (Makarov ans Schoar, 2020; Yang, 2019). These deviations from the law of one prices is even more pronounced due to the untraceable cross-border trading of virtual assets via peer-to-peer (P2P) transaction facilitated by advanced blockchain technology (Nakanoto, 2008). It seems that constraints and frictions in the arbitrage capital flow have led to market segmentation and significant, persistent price deviations between countries. However, there has not been a systematic analysis of the arbitrage trading across borders and the price deviation between countries due to the lack of transaction data in the virtual asset market. This paper attempts to fill this gap in the previous studies. In this study, daily trading data from September 2017 to December 2022 for virtual assets such as Bitcoin(BTC), Ethereum(ETH), Ripple(XRP), Cardano(ADA), and Dogecoin(DOGE) were used. For each coin, the price deviations between the KRW domestic and the USD international market were calculated by subtracting the KRW/USD spot exchange rate from each coin's exchange rate, which is the ratio of its KRW closing price to its USD closing price on the same trading day. Subsequently, a price disparity index was constructed by extracting a common factor from the price deviations of each coin using principal componant analysis(PCA) methodology. This study examined the time-series characteristics of the disparity index and the economic factors related to the index. Our analysis showed that the disparity index co-moved with the KRW price index, indicating that price deviations occur during periods of a rapid appreciation in the KRW coin market. The disparity index increased significantly after the implementation of a new regulation such as the Travel Rule, implying that frictions in the arbitrage activities lead to a market segmentation and price deviations across countries. In the multi-variate regression analysis, where the price disparity index was regressed on cryptocurrency market sentiment variables, financial market variables, commodity and stock market variables, the disparity index was closely related to investor sentiment in both the KRW and USD coin market, as well as to the movement of international financial markets, while showing no significant relationship with commodity and stock markets. Next, for each coin, the idiosyncratic price deviation was extracted by subtracting the disparity index from each coin's price deviations. The unique price deviations between the KRW and the USD market observed in individual coins were influenced by demand factors specific to each coin, unlike the disparity index. Specifically, the idiosyncratic price deviations on the previous day, daily returns, and KRW trading volume exhibited positive relationships with idiosyncratic price deviations in the four coins, and these results were maintained even after controlling for other variable. Meanwhile, using the daily change in price deviation as a proxy variable, this study divided the entire sample into two groups: one estimated to have arbitrage trading and one without, and examined whether arbitrage trading contributes to resolving the price disparity. The sample estimated to have no arbitrage trading showed a higher Kimchi premium than the sample estimated to have arbitrage trading, indicating that arbitrage transactions contribute to resolving price deviations between the KRW and the USD market. The sample without arbitrage trading showed larger KRW trading volume and lower Amihud measure compared to the sample with arbitrage trading, exhibiting a stronger tendency towards momentum trading that follows price deviations, rather than engaging in contrarian trading for arbitrage purposes.

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